Question

A new driver decides to take a Driver's Education course. The probability that you will not suffer an accident during your first year after following the course is 85%. 80% of new drivers also follow this course and the same percentage does not suffer accidents in their first year of driving. β€’ What is the probability that a new driver has received the course if he or she has had an accident in his or her first year?

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Answer to a math question A new driver decides to take a Driver's Education course. The probability that you will not suffer an accident during your first year after following the course is 85%. 80% of new drivers also follow this course and the same percentage does not suffer accidents in their first year of driving. β€’ What is the probability that a new driver has received the course if he or she has had an accident in his or her first year?

Expert avatar
Andrea
4.5
86 Answers
To find P(C | A) , the probability that a new driver has taken the course given that they had an accident, we use Bayes' theorem:

P(C | A) = \frac{P(A | C) \times P(C)}{P(A)}

Given:
- P(A | C) = 0.15
- P(C) = 0.80
- P(A) = 0.20

Substitute the values into the formula:

P(C | A) = \frac{0.15 \times 0.80}{0.20} = \frac{0.12}{0.20} = 0.60

Therefore, the probability that a new driver has taken the course given that they had an accident in their first year is \boxed{60\%} .

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