Question

When taking a test with m closed answers, a student knows the correct answer with probability p, otherwise he chooses one of the possible answers at random. What is the probability that the student knows the correct answer given that he answered the question correctly.

182

likes
912 views

Answer to a math question When taking a test with m closed answers, a student knows the correct answer with probability p, otherwise he chooses one of the possible answers at random. What is the probability that the student knows the correct answer given that he answered the question correctly.

Expert avatar
Frederik
4.6
101 Answers
To solve this problem, we can use Bayes' theorem.

Let's denote the following events:
A: The event that the student knows the correct answer.
B: The event that the student answered the question correctly.

We are asked to find P(A|B), the probability that the student knows the correct answer given that he answered the question correctly.

According to Bayes' theorem, we have:

P(A|B) = \frac{{P(B|A) \cdot P(A)}}{{P(B)}}

We can calculate each of these probabilities step-by-step:

1. P(A) is the probability that the student knows the correct answer. This is given as p.
2. P(B|A) is the probability that the student answered the question correctly given that he knows the correct answer. This is equal to 1 since we are assuming that the student knows the correct answer.
3. P(B) is the total probability that the student answered the question correctly.

To calculate P(B), we need to consider two cases:
a) The student knows the correct answer, which happens with probability p.
b) The student does not know the correct answer, which happens with probability 1 - p. In this case, the probability of answering correctly by randomly choosing one of the possible answers is 1/m.

Therefore, we have:

P(B) = P(A) \cdot 1 + (1 - P(A)) \cdot \frac{1}{m} = p + \frac{1 - p}{m}

Now we can substitute these values back into Bayes' theorem to find P(A|B):

P(A|B) = \frac{{1 \cdot p}}{{p + \frac{1 - p}{m}}} = \frac{{p \cdot m}}{{pm + 1 - p}}

Answer: The probability that the student knows the correct answer given that he answered the question correctly is \frac{{p \cdot m}}{{pm + 1 - p}}

Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
What is the maximum value of f(x) = 3x^2 - 4x + 2 on the interval [-1, 2]?
+
What is the value of the sine of angle A given that the opposite side measures 5 units and the hypotenuse measures 13 units?
+
What are the asymptotes of the hyperbola given by the equation (x^2/25) - (y^2/16) = 1?
+
New questions in Mathematics
1 + 1
-6n+5=-13
5(4x+3)=75
Find the equation of the normal to the curve y=x²+4x-3 at point(1,2)
how many arrangement can be made of 4 letters chosen from the 8 letters of the world ABBSOLUTE
By direct proof, how can you prove that “The sum of any three consecutive even integers is always a multiple of 6”.
5.- From the probabilities: 𝐏(𝐁) = 𝟑𝟎% 𝐏(𝐀 ∩ 𝐁) = 𝟐𝟎% 𝐏(𝐀 ̅) = 𝟕𝟎% You are asked to calculate: 𝐏(𝐀 ∪ 𝐁)
If 0101, what is the binary representation of the 4x16 decoder output?
What is 28 marks out of 56 as a percentage
Two business partners have a bank balance of $17,942.00. After the first year their interest brings their balance to $18,928.91. What rate of interest is earned?
suppose random variable x follows poisson distribution with expected value 3. what is variance of x?
Calculate the value of a so that the vectors (2,2,−1),(3,4,2) and(a,2,3) are coplanar.
From 1975 through 2020 the mean annual gain of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 652. A random sample of 34 years is selected from this population. What is the probability that the mean gain for the sample was between 400 and 800? Assume the standard deviation is 1539
effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy under closed and open economies
A diamond ring was reduced from $999.99 to $689.99. Find the percent reduction in the price. Round the answer to the nearest tenth of a percent, if necessary.
Calculate the area of the parallelogram with adjacent vertices (1,4, −2), (−3,1,6) 𝑦 (1, −2,3)
What is the total amount due and the amount of interest on a 3-year loan of $1,000 at a simple interest rate of 12% per year?
22. Let [AB] be a chord in a circle C, and k a circle which is internally tangent to the circle C at a point P and to the chord [AB] at a point Q. Show that the line P Q passes through the midpoint of the arc AB opposite to the arc APB.
5a-3.(a-7)=-3
f(x)= 9-x^2 find (f(x+h)-f(x) )/h